What could the Scottish national elections mean for universities and businesses?

On Thursday 7 May 2026 Scotland will vote in elections to the Scottish parliament.

While current polling suggests that the Scottish National Party (SNP) is most likely to remain the largest party and secure a fifth consecutive term in government, the number of seats it will secure remains uncertain. Modelling highlights that more than half of Scotland’s constituencies could be decided by margins of less than five points and therefore voter turnout, tactical voting, and last-minute campaign developments could influence final totals. 

If John Swinney, current First Minister, is unable to secure the 65 seats required for a majority – he is currently projected to win just 66 or 67 – the SNP will need to consider how it partners with other parties to push through its policies over the coming term. This is the natural conclusion of a Scottish system designed to prevent majorities – where coalition and minority governments are expected – and the SNP has plenty of experience of working within a dynamic and fragmented parliament and partnering with others on issues of importance. 

What is expected to change with this election, is the make-up of parliament: Reform UK are emerging as the likely opposition, while Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives face historic declines. Against this backdrop, we have looked at the manifestos across the major Scottish parties to explore what their plans are for universities and businesses over the coming parliamentary term, and to assess where there is alignment between the SNP and others. 

Reading between the lines: University financial sustainability 

Across all manifestos, key pledges speak to the general public and therefore focus on issues such as improving the NHS and bringing down the cost of living. Universities are most frequently mentioned in the context of student funding – with the SNP, alongside all other parties, promising to maintain free tuition fees for Scottish students. Commitments to resolve university financial sustainability challenges are less explicit. 

We can assess the SNP’s commitment to tackling university financial sustainability challenges by what it does, alongside what it says, based on its current term in government. A joint framework in place between Universities Scotland and the Scottish Government is due to draw conclusions in the autumn, and is likely the motivation behind the Conservatives, Labour and Scottish Liberal Democrats pledging to explore higher education sustainability issues by examining alternative funding systems with partners. Should the SNP continue in government as the largest party, this work will continue with backing from a range of parties. 

Acknowledging the cross-subsidies that support university finances, particularly international student tuition income, the SNP does call for a Scottish Visa scheme to deliver immigration policy that works for Scotland. If the SNP needs find support for this issue, it may try and align with the Liberal Democrats who want UK government to report international student flows separately to estimates of long-term migration. 

Finally, Labour and the Liberal Democrats both reference university research within their manifestos, by promising to support research capacity and create the conditions for Scottish universities to successfully compete for UK-wide research funding, respectively. In the context of constrained finances this is important for university and business leaders, as research capacity within universities is fundamental to the whole research and innovation system. 

Reform-ing lifelong learning  

It’s generally acknowledged that to meet the nation’s future skills needs, Scotland’s post-16 skills system will need to adapt to a new reality, where most people will engage in tertiary education multiple times across their lives. While the majority of parties explore policy levers and reforms to apprenticeships, the Reform UK manifesto most comprehensively responds to the need for upskilling and reskilling, with a pledge to establish an Adult Re-Skilling Taskforce which will focus on lifelong learning and helping out-of-work adults into jobs. Reform finds unlikely allies in the Scottish Green Party, who pledge to focus on adult entry routes and recognition of prior learning, alongside the Liberal Democrats who promise a Job Transition Loan worth up to £5,000 per individual to support reskilling. The SNP makes no reference to adult skills or reskilling in its manifesto, but may pick up this issue if other minority parties coalesce around it. 

How green is my growth? 

Across all manifestos, the greatest fault-line is the extent to which the parties position Scotland’s transition to a low-carbon economy as a driver of Scottish economic growth. The Green Party, Labour, Liberal Democrats and SNP are all in favour of green industrial transformation as a route to not only securing energy resilience but improving the economic outlook of the nation. In contrast, the Conservatives and Reform UK call for Net Zero targets and subsidies to be scrapped, in effect signalling that clean energy is not a pathway to strong economic outcomes.  

A key principle for the SNP is that Scotland’s contribution to economic growth is constrained by current devolution. By seeking greater fiscal and borrowing powers, formally requesting the transfer of energy powers to Holyrood, and calling for another independence vote, the SNP defines Scotland’s energy and economic priorities as separate to those of the UK. 

Should the SNP continue in government without a majority, it will be able to make alliances with other parties who agree that the green transition drives economic growth. However, it will be harder to agree the policy levers that should be pulled to finance industrial transformation, with the SNP strongly focussed on constitutional change, the Green Party advocating for higher taxes on wealth and corporations, and Labour wanting to focus on delivery within a UK framework. 

We’re all pro-growth 

While all parties make the claim of being pro-growth, differences appear in how the parties see growth being achieved. The SNP’s approach offers directive state support, building on its existing focus on innovation, entrepreneurship and net-zero transition. Specifically, it proposes planning system reforms, and financial support for high-potential businesses, paid for by targeted taxes on larger corporations.  

The SNP’s ethos perhaps most closely aligns with the Green Party, who focus on increasing taxes on large corporations to transform business toward a green, social model, and who are campaigning for greater devolution of taxation, energy, migration and foreign affairs. However, the Green Party looks to more actively reshape business, in a way that is more interventionist than the SNP. There are also parallels between the SNP and Liberal Democrats, who focus on targeted deliverable policies, such as reforms to the business rates system, albeit with greater focus on small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs).  

The Labour approach is modelled on partnership with business, with Labour looking to work with SMEs and local economies. Its pledges include an extension of the devolution model in England that gives greater powers to local leaders. Labour promises to consult on giving Scottish regions the right to create regional mayors and also proposes an EU-reset. 

On the other end of the spectrum to the Green Party, the Conservative approach is low-tax, pro-market and suggests reducing state barriers, while Reform UK also pledges to taxes, offering to reform and reduce ‘the SNP’s onerous tax regime’. As the likely second largest party, it will remain to be seen how Reform’s approach affects the SNP’s attempts to introduce regulatory and tax reform. 

What’s next? 

This next parliamentary term will shape university sustainability and research capacity, Scotland’s ability to attract international talent, and the design of a tertiary system that supports lifelong learning. It will also set the direction of industrial strategy, net zero and regulation. With the fragmented parliament, early cross-party engagement will be vital to protect core capabilities and influence government priorities.